The 2025 elections have once again shown that the new electoral system, hastily adopted in 2021, produces paradoxical outcomes. At the same time, experience shows that the combination of vote allocation and regional seat distribution can lead to varying outcomes depending on voter turnout and the distribution of support across parties. Why does the system behave differently from one election to another, and what extreme scenarios might it produce in the future? What institutional or legislative adjustments could improve the predictability and fairness of electoral outcomes?

Key takeaways:

• The post-2021 electoral system led to extraordinary disproportions in 2025: the gap between the most and least represented regions increased from a previous average of around 1,800 votes per seat (2002–2021) to 13,107 votes per seat. In addition, the smallest regions lost seats, further weakening their representation.
• While the previous system largely reflected the number of valid votes cast in each region, the 2025 elections produced clear anomalies. The number of seats is no longer determined solely by votes within a region, but also by additional factors linked to redistribution in the second round.
• Since the 2021 reform, the second round has played a decisive role in shaping electoral outcomes. Seats are allocated based on the largest vote remainders of individual parties, which can concentrate gains in specific regions and generate strong majoritarian effects.

Analysis – Karel Sál

The analysis is in PDF under the link below.