Energy security in Central Europe has undergone a structural transformation since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The disruption of long-established oil and gas supply routes exposed systemic vulnerabilities, including high import dependence, infrastructural rigidity, limited diversification, and exposure to price shocks. At the same time, European decarbonization commitments continue to reshape the sector’s long-term trajectory. This paper examines the evolving concept of energy security in Central Europe, focusing on availability, affordability, sustainability, and resilience. It analyzes key vulnerabilities, assesses the role of LNG and alternative transport routes after 2022, and discusses the future of natural gas as a security fuel. The final section explores the strategic role of nuclear energy, including supply security, financing, and construction risks. The paper argues that energy security in Central Europe is increasingly defined by systemic resilience and regional cooperation rather than price considerations alone.

Key takeaways:

• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine exposed Central Europe’s structural vulnerabilities—high dependence on Russian supplies, rigid west–east-oriented infrastructure with limited interconnections, and exposure to price shocks—and shifted the concept of energy security from a narrow focus on stable supply and affordability to a broader framework centered on resilience, diversification, sustainability, and strategic autonomy.
• After 2022, LNG and expanded interconnections became central to diversification efforts, increasing flexibility but also exposing the region to global market volatility. Natural gas is expected to function as a transitional “security fuel” in the 2020s, although its long-term role is constrained by EU decarbonization goals.
• Nuclear energy can strengthen long-term energy security and decarbonization, but it involves high capital costs and construction risks. Ultimately, regional cooperation within the EU—through coordinated infrastructure planning, shared mechanisms, and systemic resilience—is essential for building a diversified and shock-resistant energy system.

Policy paper – Karel Sál

The analysis is in PDF under the link below.