A fundamental reversal is occurring in global population trends. Whereas the 20th century was defined by fears of overpopulation, the 21st century will grapple with declining birth rates and an aging population. This trend now affects nearly every region. The primary causes are cultural shifts and increased education for women. The worldwide decline in fertility will have massive consequences for the economy, social systems, and geopolitics. States will need to adapt to these changes, posing a significant challenge for democratic regimes.

Key takeaways:

• Global Population Decline: Fertility rates are dropping faster than expected. Most of the world is now below the replacement level, and the peak of global population will arrive sooner than anticipated.
• Systemic, Long-Term Impacts: Declining birth rates result in rapid population aging, alter the balance between continents, and strain pension and healthcare systems. Economic dynamism is at risk.
• Targeted Solutions: Adaptation requires automation, pro-family policies, pension reform, and a realistic approach to migration. Without an action plan, Europe risks losing geopolitical significance.

Policy Paper – Jan Rovenský

The analysis is in PDF under the link below.