Europe is entering a period of profound transformation in its security environment. Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, rising geopolitical tensions, and shifting transatlantic relations are challenging long-standing assumptions about stability. This paper examines how the roles of NATO and the European Union are evolving, identifies key drivers shaping Europe’s security architecture, and outlines possible future scenarios. It argues that Europe’s long-term stability will depend not only on its ability to respond to immediate threats, but also on strategic coordination, sustained political will, and a coherent long-term vision.

Key takeaways:

• Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ended the assumption of a stable Europe free from large-scale interstate war. NATO strengthened collective defence, expanded with Finland and Sweden, and increased its focus on forward defence and higher defence spending. At the same time, the EU deepened defence cooperation and reinforced its role as a geopolitical actor.
• NATO remains the key guarantor of collective defence, while the EU complements the Alliance in resilience, defence industry, and countering hybrid threats. The debate on strategic autonomy has shifted toward a pragmatic approach—greater European responsibility within NATO, not outside it.
• The war in Ukraine has highlighted the need for credible deterrence, societal resilience, and a strong defence industrial base. The Czech Republic plays an active role in supporting Ukraine, strengthening NATO’s eastern flank, and advancing European defence cooperation, while stable transatlantic ties remain essential.

Analysis – Karel Sál

The analysis is in PDF under the link below.