Poland has a new president. Well, it will have one, in August. It will be Karol Nawrocki, who narrowly won the presidential election. The opposition Law and Justice candidate defeated his rival Trzaskowski. The turnout was a record: more than 70%. On the other hand, the close result with such a large number of people once again shows the deep polarization of Polish society. Nawrocki’s victory is unlikely to have a significant impact on the direction of foreign policy. Problems for the Tusk government are to be expected mainly on the domestic scene.

Key takeaways:

• Karol Nawrocki is the winner of the Polish presidential election, winning 50.89% of the vote. He was voted for mainly by people living in small towns, the less educated, the elderly and, surprisingly, also by young voters.
• The close result and the record turnout testify to the polarization of Polish society.
• The election can be interpreted as a vote on Donald Tusk’s government. The victory of the opposition candidate means a postponement of key reforms. Tusk will ask for confidence in the Sejm.
• The direction of foreign policy is likely to remain unchanged, with an emphasis on security, strengthening ties with the United States and strengthening the role within the European Union.

Analysis – Irena Krcháková

The analysis is in PDF under the link below.