This study examines how ANO’s Senate election results vary with the electoral cohort and its position in relation to the national government. The underlying dataset covers 21 successful candidacies nominated by ANO (including coalition candidates) between 2012 and 2026. The sharpest contrast is between periods in parliamentary opposition, when the movement won an average of six seats per Senate election, and periods as the senior governing coalition partner, when it averaged just 0.67 seats. Differences also emerge between the three recurring cohorts of Senate constituencies. The results suggest that ANO’s gains in elections to the upper chamber of the Czech Parliament are highly sensitive to context.

Key takeaways:

• ANO’s Senate gains vary considerably from year to year. Results ranging from no seats to nine reflect uneven electoral performance, influenced primarily by ANO’s position in relation to the government.
• When ANO is in parliamentary opposition, it averages six seats per election; as a coalition partner without the premiership, 3.5; and when leading the government, approximately 0.67.
• Each Senate election cohort changes the setting in which political support translates into seats. The third cohort (2014, 2020, 2026) produced a lower average result than the second (2012, 2018, 2024) and first (2016 and 2022).

Analysis – Karel Sál

The analysis is in PDF under the link below.