The world is entering a new and more dynamic security environment as the current status quo no longer meets the visions of many countries, including China. Given China’s geographical location and regional and global ambitions, there are multiple fronts on which Beijing is testing the status quo and trying to assert more power and influence. The current geopolitics and international development further emphasize the importance of the Indo-Pacific region as one of the most delicate parts of the world comprising major powers, global trade chokepoints, but also territorial and exclusive economic zones disputes, and overall growing tension. 

The current geopolitical reality in the Indo-Pacific has changed unprecedentedly in the past two decades also because of China’s growing capabilities. Friction stretching from the Korean Peninsula through the East and South China Sea to territorial disputes between China and Japan or the Philippines and, most notably, the Taiwan issue are only some of the examples of deteriorating regional security stability. “China wants to become a regional hegemon in the future,” emphasizes Mr Lee and adds that other regional countries need to adapt their security strategies in terms of power competition. “Taiwan is the core interest of China and China insists on the unification of Taiwan,” comments Admiral Lee. He further stresses that China is testing Taiwan’s resilience on multiple fronts, including hybrid threats and military grey zone activities. “The overall situation from the regional security point of view remains very very unstable. It is hard to say which one (issue) will break out first,” concludes Mr Lee on the near-future Indo-Pacific development. 

The Indo-Pacific is fundamentally different from the European region in terms of collective security. “There is NATO organization in Europe that can provide deterrence to the opponents; however, in Asia-Pacific, there is no collective defense organization and there is kind of a military alliance that is only bilateral,” Mr Lee compares the situations between Asia-Pacific and Europe and stresses the difficulty to design such a collective defense body in the Indo-Pacific. On top of that, some countries have a long and hostile history that hinders chances of increased cooperation. “This region is too close to China and China’s economic influence is so strong, even stronger than the Unites States’, so the regional countries want to have a good relation with China,” concludes Mr Lee on the slim chances of building any type of anti-hegemonic coalition in the region. The current options for containment of China remain, according to Mr Lee, in bilateral military treaties between the United States and other regional countries, including South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines for example. 

The possible reunification of Taiwan has long been an alert and serious destabilizing threat to the whole international community. “I don’t think there is any possibility for a peaceful resolution in the near future. From China’s point of view, a peaceful resolution means a peaceful reunification. But the majority of Taiwanese people do not want to be reunified.”  Mr Lee also stresses the importance of the status quo related to the China-Taiwan issue. “Status quo can be a condition for Taiwan as long as we want but for China, this is not the condition they can accept,” which makes the whole situation very unstable. However, Mr. Lee emphasizes that he does not think China will forcefully unify Taiwan shortly because they have to consider several factors, including the international community, economic sanctions, or China’s armed forces capabilities which are not sufficient enough to seize the Island yet. “I believe they still need more years to prepare if they really want to launch the forcible way to unify Taiwan.”

Taiwan’s closest ally has been the United States for decades now. The whole world is anxiously awaiting the results of the upcoming US Presidential election which will also determine the future course of the whole region, including Taiwan’s sovereignty. “We need good coordination between the United States and China but it is difficult.” However, it is not only up to the United States to decide the future fate of Taiwan. “Taiwan needs to establish capabilities that can deter China from taking the action, (capabilities) that can send signals and make the Chinese believe that if you invade me, you will suffer a lot of a loss,” Mr Lee firmly assesses and adds that Taiwan needs to prove that its people have a strong will to defend themselves. He also stresses the strength of reverse logic by emphasizing that Taiwan and its partners, including the United States and European countries, can also provide China with a reassurance that if Beijing refrains from taking action, its core interests will not be hurt – deterrence and reassurance. 

When it comes to the United States as such, Mr Lee assumes that if Kamala Harris wins the seat in the Oval Office, the whole strategy of the US towards the Indo-Pacific will not change much. In other words, business as usual. However, if Donald Trump becomes president again, we should assess the whole situation more carefully according to Mr. Lee’s words. Trump is an unpredictable person and a businessman in nature. “Sometimes the American interest conflicts the mutual interest between the US and other regions.” Mr. Lee concludes with his beliefs that even former President Trump would continue the China containment policy and strongly emphasizes that Taiwan should not just sit back and wait for any kind of accident and it should be prepared and prove it is in the US interest to aid Taiwan in case of an invasion.”We need to invest more in security to prove to either Harris or Trump that we have a strong will to defend ourselves.”